Precipitation and Flash Flood Prediction from Minutes to Days

from Monday, 5 October 2020 (09:00) to Wednesday, 7 October 2020 (17:00)

        : Sessions
    /     : Talks
        : Breaks
5 Oct 2020
6 Oct 2020
7 Oct 2020
Towards seamless prediction - Roland Potthast (DWD) (until 12:30) ()
09:00 Introduction - Roland Potthast (DWD)   ()
09:20 The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model - David Turner (NOAA Global Systems Laboratory)   ()
10:00 SINFONY - the combination of Nowcasting and Numerical Weather Prediction on the convective scale at DWD - Ulrich Blahak (DWD)   ()
10:40 --- Coffee break ---
11:00 The research group on Near-Realtime Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Prediction (RealPEP) - Silke Trömel (University of Bonn, Institute for Geosciences - Section Meteorology)   ()
11:40 Moderated Discussion   ()
Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN) - Cintia Carbajal Henken (Freie Universität Berlin) Ricardo Reinoso Rondinel (University of Bonn) (until 12:30) ()
09:00 Nowcasting radar precipitation growth & decay in complex orography: a probabilistic machine learning approach - Loris Foresti (MeteoSwiss)   ()
09:40 Foresight: Forecasting Storms with Insight - Marc Schleiss (TU Delft)   ()
10:00 Scale Characterization and Correction of Diurnal Cycle Errors in Nowcasting - Aitor Atencia (ZAMG)   ()
10:20 Radar-based Nowcasting: Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the STEPS Methodology - Ricardo Reinoso-Rondinel (University of Bonn)   ()
10:40 --- Coffee break ---
11:00 On the relationship between lightning activity and convective cell severity - Jordi Figueras i Ventura (MeteoSwiss)   ()
11:20 Assessment of satellite- and ground-based observed total column water vapor variabilities and their relation to convective initiation in Germany - Cintia Carbajal Henken (FUB)   ()
11:40 Towards a consistent multi-sensor QPE: NWC SAF's satellite QPE and AEMET's multi-sensor QPE and FFP - Xavier Calbet (AEMET)   ()
12:00 Moderated Discussion   ()
Flash Flood Prediction - Carina Furusho (Jülich Research Centre ) Stefan Kollet (Research Center Juelich) (until 12:30) ()
09:00 Evaluating NWP-based ensemble forecasts for distributed hydrological modelling and flash flood forecasting in France - Maria-Helena Ramos (INRAE)   ()
09:40 Flash flood hydrologic and geomorphic response: observations needs for improved risk and basin management - Marco Borga (UNIPD)   ()
10:00 The PDE-based hydrologic model ParFlow performance in flash-flood nowcast - Carina Furusho-Percot (Forschungszentrum Jülich)   ()
10:20 Improving short range hydrological forecasts by using nowcasting technique and data assimilation in meteorological models - Francesco Silvestro   ()
10:40 --- Coffee break ---
11:00 Turning convective forecasts into flood warnings that lead to action - Linda Speight (University of Reading)   ()
11:20 How can the uncertainty in indirect estimates of extreme flash flood discharges be reduced? - Darren Lumbroso (HR Wallingford)   ()
11:40 Rainfall nowcasting using deep learning method in southeast of Brazil - Angelica Caseri   ()
12:00 Moderated Discussion   ()
12:30 --- Lunch Break ---
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) - Christian Chwala (University of Augsburg, KIT IMK-IFU) Silke Trömel (University of Bonn) (until 17:25) ()
13:45 Recent progress in polarimetric radar QPE - Alexander Ryzhkov (CIMMS/NSSL, USA)   ()
14:25 A specific attenuation based radar QPE for operations - Jian Zhang (NOAA/National Severe Storms Lab)   ()
14:45 Polarimetric radar QPE in aggregated snow - Petar Bukovcic (The University of Oklahoma CIMMS/NSSL)   ()
15:05 Assessing the benefits of specific attenuation for quantitative precipitation estimation with a C-band radar network - Ju-Yu Chen (Institute for Geosciences, Department of Meteorology, University of Bonn, Germany)   ()
15:25 --- Coffee break ---
15:40 Opportunistic Sensing of Rainfall - Remko Uijlenhoet (Wageningen University & Research)   ()
16:00 Commercial Microwave Links for Urban Rainfall-runoff Modelling - Martin Fencl (Czech Technical University in Prague)   ()
16:20 Synergies of commercial microwave links and polarimetric weather radars - Julius Polz (KIT/IMK-IFU)   ()
16:40 Moderated Discussion   ()
12:30 --- Lunch Break ---
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) - Elisabeth Bauernschubert Clemens Simmer (University of Bonn) (until 17:30) ()
13:45 Exploiting new observations and data assimilation techniques for improved forecasting of convective precipitation - Sarah Dance (University of Reading)   ()
14:25 Towards Rapid Update Cycling of Cloud and Precipitation Observations at DWD - Lisa Neef (Deutscher Wetterdienst)   ()
14:45 Convective scale data assimilation and the use of radar observations - David Simonin   ()
15:05 The synergistic use of polarimetric radar data and one-dimensional microphysical models for precipitation nowcasting - Jacob Carlin (University of Oklahoma)   ()
15:25 --- Coffee break ---
15:40 Identification of Hydrometeor Mixing Ratio Retrievals Suitable for Dual-Polarimetric C-Band Radar Observations over Germany - Lucas Reimann (University of Bonn)   ()
16:00 Improvements on the assimilation of radar reflectivities - Klaus Vobig (DWD)   ()
16:20 Microphysical model development guided by radar observations - Axel Seifert (Deutscher Wetterdienst)   ()
16:40 Moderated Discussion   ()
12:30 --- Lunch Break ---
Open Discussions (until 17:00) ()
14:00 Conclusions and Perspectives Discussion QPE - Prof. Remko Uijlenhoet (Wageningen University & Research) Tanja Winterrath (DWD) Petar Bukovcic (NOAA) Christian Chwala (KIT (IMK-IFU) / Uni Augsburg) Alexander Ryzhkov (NOAA/NSSL, University of Oklahoma) Jian Zhang (NOAA) Jordi Figueras i Ventura (MeteoSwiss) Martin Fencl (Czech Technical University in Prague) Dr. Silke Trömel (University of Bonn)   ()
14:40 Conclusions and Perspectives Discussion QPN - Loris Foresti (MeteoSwiss) Aitor Atencia (ZAMG) Jordi Figueras i Ventura (MeteoSwiss) Rene Preusker (Freie Universität Berlin) Marc Schleiss (TU Delft) Cintia Carbajal Henken (Freie Universität Berlin) Alan Seed (Bureau of Meteorology) Xavier Calbet (AEMET) Ricardo Reinoso-Rondinel (University of Bonn)   ()
15:20 Conclusions and Perspectives Discussion NWP - Andrew Barrett Elisabeth Bauernschubert Klaus Vobig (DWD) Clemens Simmer (University of Bonn) Jacob Carlin (University of Oklahoma) Sarah Dance (University of Reading) Vera Schemann Dave Turner (NOAA) Ulrich Blahak (DWD) Lisa Neef (Deutscher Wetterdienst) Roland Potthast (DWD)   ()
16:00 Conclusions and Perspectives Discussion FFP - Harrie-Jan Hendricks-Franssen (FZJ) Leandro Kazimierski (National Institute for Water, Argentina) Lionel Berthet (DGPR/SRNH/SDCAP) Pierre Javelle (INRAE) Stefan Kollet (Research Center Juelich) Linda Speight (University of Reading) Carina Furusho (Jülich Research Centre ) Angélica Nardo Caseri   ()
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