Name: Precipitation and Flash Flood Prediction from Minutes to Days
Start: 2020-10-05T09:00:00+02:00
End: 2020-10-07T17:00:00+02:00
Location: Online

Precipitation and Flash Flood Prediction from Minutes to Days

from Monday, October 5, 2020 (9:00 AM) to Wednesday, October 7, 2020 (5:00 PM)

Monday, October 5, 2020
9:00 AM Towards seamless prediction
Towards seamless prediction
9:00 AM - 12:30 PM
Contributions

9:00 AM Introduction - Roland Potthast (DWD)

9:20 AM The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model - David Turner (NOAA Global Systems Laboratory)

10:00 AM SINFONY - the combination of Nowcasting and Numerical Weather Prediction on the convective scale at DWD - Ulrich Blahak (DWD)

11:00 AM The research group on Near-Realtime Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Prediction (RealPEP) - Silke Trömel (University of Bonn, Institute for Geosciences - Section Meteorology)

11:40 AM Moderated Discussion
12:30 PM Lunch Break
Lunch Break
12:30 PM - 1:45 PM
1:45 PM Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE)
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE)
1:45 PM - 5:25 PM
Contributions

1:45 PM Recent progress in polarimetric radar QPE - Alexander Ryzhkov (CIMMS/NSSL, USA)

2:25 PM A specific attenuation based radar QPE for operations - Jian Zhang (NOAA/National Severe Storms Lab)

2:45 PM Polarimetric radar QPE in aggregated snow - Petar Bukovcic (The University of Oklahoma CIMMS/NSSL)

3:05 PM Assessing the benefits of specific attenuation for quantitative precipitation estimation with a C-band radar network - Ju-Yu Chen (Institute for Geosciences, Department of Meteorology, University of Bonn, Germany)

3:40 PM Opportunistic Sensing of Rainfall - Remko Uijlenhoet (Wageningen University & Research)

4:00 PM Commercial Microwave Links for Urban Rainfall-runoff Modelling - Martin Fencl (Czech Technical University in Prague)

4:20 PM Synergies of commercial microwave links and polarimetric weather radars - Julius Polz (KIT/IMK-IFU)

4:40 PM Moderated Discussion
Tuesday, October 6, 2020
9:00 AM Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN)
Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN)
9:00 AM - 12:30 PM
Contributions

9:00 AM Nowcasting radar precipitation growth & decay in complex orography: a probabilistic machine learning approach - Loris Foresti (MeteoSwiss)

9:40 AM Foresight: Forecasting Storms with Insight - Marc Schleiss (TU Delft)

10:00 AM Scale Characterization and Correction of Diurnal Cycle Errors in Nowcasting - Aitor Atencia (ZAMG)

10:20 AM Radar-based Nowcasting: Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the STEPS Methodology - Ricardo Reinoso-Rondinel (University of Bonn)

11:00 AM On the relationship between lightning activity and convective cell severity - Jordi Figueras i Ventura (MeteoSwiss)

11:20 AM Assessment of satellite- and ground-based observed total column water vapor variabilities and their relation to convective initiation in Germany - Cintia Carbajal Henken (FUB)

11:40 AM Towards a consistent multi-sensor QPE: NWC SAF's satellite QPE and AEMET's multi-sensor QPE and FFP - Xavier Calbet (AEMET)

12:00 PM Moderated Discussion
12:30 PM Lunch Break
Lunch Break
12:30 PM - 1:45 PM
1:45 PM NWP
NWP
1:45 PM - 5:30 PM
Contributions

1:45 PM Exploiting new observations and data assimilation techniques for improved forecasting of convective precipitation - Sarah Dance (University of Reading)

2:25 PM Towards Rapid Update Cycling of Cloud and Precipitation Observations at DWD - Lisa Neef (Deutscher Wetterdienst)

2:45 PM Convective scale data assimilation and the use of radar observations - David Simonin

3:05 PM The synergistic use of polarimetric radar data and one-dimensional microphysical models for precipitation nowcasting - Jacob Carlin (University of Oklahoma)

3:40 PM Identification of Hydrometeor Mixing Ratio Retrievals Suitable for Dual-Polarimetric C-Band Radar Observations over Germany - Lucas Reimann (University of Bonn)

4:00 PM Improvements on the assimilation of radar reflectivities - Klaus Vobig (DWD)

4:20 PM Microphysical model development guided by radar observations - Axel Seifert (Deutscher Wetterdienst)

4:40 PM Moderated Discussion
Wednesday, October 7, 2020
9:00 AM Flash Flood Prediction
Flash Flood Prediction
9:00 AM - 12:30 PM
Contributions

9:00 AM Evaluating NWP-based ensemble forecasts for distributed hydrological modelling and flash flood forecasting in France - Maria-Helena Ramos (INRAE)

9:40 AM Flash flood hydrologic and geomorphic response: observations needs for improved risk and basin management - Marco Borga (UNIPD)

10:00 AM The PDE-based hydrologic model ParFlow performance in flash-flood nowcast - Carina Furusho-Percot (Forschungszentrum Jülich)

10:20 AM Improving short range hydrological forecasts by using nowcasting technique and data assimilation in meteorological models - Francesco Silvestro

11:00 AM Turning convective forecasts into flood warnings that lead to action - Linda Speight (University of Reading)

11:20 AM How can the uncertainty in indirect estimates of extreme flash flood discharges be reduced? - Darren Lumbroso (HR Wallingford)

11:40 AM Rainfall nowcasting using deep learning method in southeast of Brazil - Angelica Caseri

12:00 PM Moderated Discussion
12:30 PM Lunch Break
Lunch Break
12:30 PM - 2:00 PM
2:00 PM Open Discussions
Open Discussions
2:00 PM - 5:00 PM
Contributions

2:00 PM Conclusions and Perspectives Discussion QPE - Alexander Ryzhkov (NOAA/NSSL, University of Oklahoma) Christian Chwala (KIT (IMK-IFU) / Uni Augsburg) Jian Zhang (NOAA) Jordi Figueras i Ventura (MeteoSwiss) Martin Fencl (Czech Technical University in Prague) Petar Bukovcic (NOAA) Remko Uijlenhoet (Wageningen University & Research) Silke Trömel (University of Bonn) Tanja Winterrath (DWD)

2:40 PM Conclusions and Perspectives Discussion QPN - Aitor Atencia (ZAMG) Alan Seed (Bureau of Meteorology) Cintia Carbajal Henken (Freie Universität Berlin) Jordi Figueras i Ventura (MeteoSwiss) Loris Foresti (MeteoSwiss) Marc Schleiss (TU Delft) Rene Preusker (Freie Universität Berlin) Ricardo Reinoso-Rondinel (University of Bonn) Xavier Calbet (AEMET)

3:20 PM Conclusions and Perspectives Discussion NWP - Andrew Barrett Clemens Simmer (University of Bonn) Dave Turner (NOAA) Elisabeth Bauernschubert Jacob Carlin (University of Oklahoma) Klaus Vobig (DWD) Lisa Neef (Deutscher Wetterdienst) Roland Potthast (DWD) Sarah Dance (University of Reading) Ulrich Blahak (DWD) Vera Schemann

4:00 PM Conclusions and Perspectives Discussion FFP - Angélica Nardo Caseri Carina Furusho (Jülich Research Centre ) Harrie-Jan Hendricks-Franssen (FZJ) Leandro Kazimierski (National Institute for Water, Argentina) Linda Speight (University of Reading) Lionel Berthet (DGPR/SRNH/SDCAP) Pierre Javelle (INRAE) Stefan Kollet (Research Center Juelich)