Conveners
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP): NWP
- Clemens Simmer (University of Bonn)
- Elisabeth Bauernschubert
Brief periods of intense rainfall can lead to flooding with the potential to cause damage to property and to threaten lives. To improve the prediction of these events, more accurate forecasts of convective rainfall are needed, and these can then be used to inform flood guidance and warning systems. In this talk we will review data assimilation for convection-permitting numerical weather...
Prediction of severe precipitation events and flash floods happens at timescales of minutes to hours, which is also the intersection of nowcasting (NWC) and numerical weather prediction (NWP). At most centers, NWC and NWP have thus far comprised very separate systems, with not just different prediction methods but also different observation types used to constrain the predictions. One aim of...
There is an ever-increasing demand for high-resolution weather prediction, which in the UK has an emphasis on improved forecasts/nowcasts of the types of convective storms that, in recent years, have led to serious flooding. In this talk, we will present some of the latest contributions made by the Met Office Reading group to the field of convective data assimilation and the use of radar...
Dual-polarization radar data can be used to infer a wealth of information about precipitation microphysics. The development and coupling of forward polarimetric radar operators to models has emerged as a popular approach for relating and studying the sensitivity of observed polarimetric signatures to underlying microphysical processes, with the goal of improving microphysical parameterization...
The assimilation of dual-polarimetric radar observations in NWP models is promising especially for short-term forecasts of quantitative precipitation. However, directly assimilating polarimetric moments is still a challenge due to, e.g., the rather rudimentary appreciation of particle size and shape distributions in the NWP models. Consequently, pioneering studies started assimilating...
Recently, the assimilation of radar reflectivities has become operational at the DWD. However, the assimilation of radar data still comes along with some unique challenges and shows several deficiencies in practice.
For addressing some of these deficiencies, we present two approaches for further improving the assimilation of this new kind of data within the framwork of the localized ensemble...
Microphysical schemes in numerical weather prediction models are based on the
basic equations that govern the growth and interaction of liquid drops and ice
particles (hydrometeors) in the atmosphere. Unfortunately, our knowledge of
these microphysical processes is still incomplete. In addition, quite drastic
simplifications are necessary to make the problem tractable in numerical
weather...
