Conveners
Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN): Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN)
- Cintia Carbajal Henken (Freie Universität Berlin)
- Ricardo Reinoso Rondinel (University of Bonn)
The simplest and most effective way to nowcast precipitation in the next 2 hours is to extrapolate composite radar images along the estimated motion field (optical flow), commonly referred to as nowcasting by Lagrangian persistence. In recent years, there has been a growing amount of studies exploiting machine learning to extract useful (predictable) information from radar archives for...
The ability to predict extreme rain and flooding over the next 6 hours is one of the major challenges facing meteorological services worldwide. Currently, two main approaches are available to forecasters: a) data-driven predictions based on the extrapolation of radar observations and b) physically-based numerical weather prediction models (NWPs). Radar-based forecasts offer high spatial...
The most widely used technique for nowcasting of quantitative precipitation in operational and research centers is the Lagrangian extrapolation of the latest radar observations. However, this technique has a limited forecast skill because of the assumption made on its formulation. These assumptions are constant motion vectors and neglection of growth or decay in the precipitation field. In...
Conventional extrapolation nowcasting methods assume that the precipitation fields do not evolve during the lead-time period. In recent years, nowcasting approaches have been developed addressing this limitation. One of those approaches is the short-term ensemble prediction system (STEPS). Based on the assumption that smaller precipitation structures have a shorter lifetime and lower...
This presentation will provide an overview of the activities related to the combination and analysis of lightning and radar data conducted at MeteoSwiss. The first part of the presentation will be devoted to the analysis of the performance of the lightning jump algorithm that is implemented in real-time for nowcasting severe thunderstorms. It uses the total lightning rate from the operational...
Highly spatial and temporal variable atmospheric water vapor largely determines whether clouds, and subsequent precipitation, evolve and how they develop differently in certain regions. The spatial variability of atmospheric water vapor fields at very small scales, but for larger regions, is currently only observable from polar-orbiting satellites.
We present our newly developed and...
In countries, usually very large or small, there is usually the need to use QPE both from radar and satellite. The combination of these two sensors is not straight forward as there are usually inconsistencies between them. Within the Nowcasting Satellite Application Facility (NWC SAF) from EUMETSAT, AEMET has started to make some efforts in understanding the source of these inconsistencies....
